FARGO — Fargo Microsoft campus colleagues Jenny Enger and Amy Scoville joined shoppers at Osgood Hornbacher's on November 8th, who are focusing on selecting turkeys filled with refrigerators in advance before Thanksgiving.

Their mission: to find the right bird for office gatherings.

"Let's make a big turkey," Enge told Scoville, who looked at some of the larger Butterball brand turkeys. "We have enough spices."

Engel said it might not even hurt to buy two birds, so they can be "safely screwed up" if the baking goes wrong.

Meanwhile, Peggy Lahren is leaning on the refrigerator while her mother is checking options and prices.

Lahren said they are looking for a turkey of the right size-for sale.

"I usually look for 14-, 15- or 16-pound shells. Why should it be smaller?" Laren said, eating leftovers never hurts.

Laren is ready for the holiday.

"I'll have fillings, mashed potatoes, gravy and turkey, I'm ready," Laren said.

Hornbacher President Matt Leiseth said that finding a bird to swallow this Thanksgiving may not be a problem, and it should all be resolved this year.

But according to industry experts and economists, due to rising turkey feed prices, labor shortages, and pandemic supply chains disrupting feathers across the country, your feast will be more expensive than in the past.

On Monday, November 8, 2021, Amy Scoville purchased different brands of frozen turkey for a staff gathering at Osgood Hornbacher's Freezer Zone on South 45th Street. Alyssa Goelzer / The Forum

In 2020, the cost of providing a feast for 10 people is not a small expense. According to the cost survey conducted by the United States Agricultural Bureau, the cost per person is US$46.90, which is less than US$5. This is the lowest cost since 2010.

AFBF chief economist John Newton said that helping to reduce costs is the way stores price turkey as a loss leader. In 2020, the average price of a 16-pound bird is $19.39, or about $1.21 per pound. The overall turkey price is also the lowest since 2010.

However, due to inflation, such ultra-low-cost feed bags are unlikely to appear this year.

According to data released by the US Department of Labor on Wednesday, November 10, consumer prices increased faster than expected in October.

The consumer price index, which tracks inflation for a range of major goods and services, rose 0.9% in October and 6.2% during the 12-month period ending October. This increase is almost twice the analyst's estimate of the 0.5% increase in CPI last month.

Veronica Nigh, senior economist at the U.S. Agricultural Bureau Federation, said: “When you go to the grocery store, it feels more expensive, and that’s because it does.”

Nigh recently told CBS MoneyWatch that the overall price of turkey and all accessories this year will increase by 4% to 5% from a year ago.

A quick glance at the frozen aisles of grocery stores in Fargo and West Fargo, and found that the price of turkey ranges from $1.39 per pound for a special bird to $2.29 per pound for other typical turkeys, although promotions close to the holidays usually cost a pound per pound. Falling. Organic turkey from a store is $4.99 per pound.

In this undated photo, a wide-breasted white turkey can be seen in a barn in Melrose, Minnesota, which is the most common breed of turkey raised for processing. (Photo courtesy of the Turkish Growers Association of Minnesota)

Approximately 57% of the turkeys harvested by federal inspections are males (males), while approximately 43% are hens (females). One of the main differences is the size. The average live weight of Tom cat is 41 pounds, while the average weight of hens is 17 pounds. According to the US Department of Agriculture, to convert this to retail level, if the turkey you buy in the store weighs 16-24 pounds, then it is a rooster, and if it weighs 8 to 16 pounds, then it is a hen .

The average live weight varies with the time of year. From January to May, producers concentrate on producing large-scale turkeys suitable for processing. However, the U.S. Department of Agriculture stated that from June to November, production shifted to smaller whole turkeys, which are suitable as holiday decorations.

Turkish growers say they have completed their work, despite seeing a sharp increase in the price of corn and soybean feed required to bring the birds to market weight.

Beth Breeding, spokesperson for the National Turkey Federation, told the forum that turkey options will be available and there may be good deals in stores. What if you insist on buying a bigger bird? She said, just cheer up. Leftovers are a good thing.

Breeding said on Tuesday, November 9: "Turkey is the heart of Thanksgiving dinner, Americans can rest assured that there will be turkey supply this holiday." Cut, we recommend that you plan ahead with your local retailer to ensure you Able to obtain the desired product. "

Hannah Halldorson, spokesperson for the Minnesota Turkish Growers Association, also expressed these views.

"There will be a turkey on every table this year," Halderson said.

Minnesota is the nation's largest turkey producing state. Its 450 growers operate about 600 turkey farms scattered across the state and will grow about 46 million roosters and hens this year.

Many turkeys are heavier, so if you want a turkey weighing less than 16 pounds, “now is the time to buy it,” Halldorson said.

Halldorson said: "We recommend that you order now so that you can ensure that your party is the right size."

In this undated photo, a broad-breasted white turkey can be seen from a farm in Melrose, Minnesota. This species is the most commonly raised species for processing in the United States. (Photo courtesy of the Turkish Growers Association of Minnesota)

Turkeys in North Dakota are much smaller.

The Turkish Federation of North Dakota has nine member farms and produces approximately 1 million birds each year.

Dave Muehler grows corn and soybeans in Hankinson, North Carolina, and he also runs Muehler Turkish Farm Company.

"By today's standards, we are not really big companies," Mueller said on Tuesday. He transports approximately 80,000 tom turkeys each year, and the market weighs more than 40 pounds. He said that most of his birds are used for institutional purposes, such as food service, as turkey meal or as meat for sandwiches.

This year, growers are facing the challenge of high feed costs, which account for about two-thirds of the cost of raising turkeys. For example, corn prices reached a peak of $7 per bushel this summer. Although they are now in the range of $5 per bushel, they are still at historic highs, Mueller said.

"Some of the highest feed costs we have seen. This has a clear impact on production costs," Mueller said.

"Consumer prices....Like everything else you see now, prices will be higher, but I don’t think anyone will have trouble finding the products they need or want. I Think this is good news," Mueller said. "Most importantly, I don't think anyone will run out of turkey."

Jenny Enger (left) and Amy Scoville buy frozen turkey for a staff gathering at Osgood Hornbacher's on 45th Street in Fargo South on Monday, November 8, 2021. Alyssa Goelzer / Forum

Tony Sarsam, CEO of Family Fare's parent company SpartanNash, said in an email to the forum that his company has been planning for Thanksgiving for months.

"Across the industry, there is strong demand for turkey and tight supply. It is now almost impossible to try to find turkey from producers," Salsam said. "Retailers continue to be affected by a shortage of basic workers, including truck drivers, warehouse employees and grocery store employees. This labor market has caused a ripple effect throughout the supply chain."

Sarsam said that in the past, one large turkey (18 pounds and larger) might be purchased to feed three families. By 2020, if the number of gatherings decreases, three little turkeys can feed three families. This year, SpartanNash is betting on larger gatherings, shifting its purchases to pigeons weighing 12 to 18 pounds.

However, he said they may cost more. In the past few years, the cost of turkeys in the United States has risen by more than 25%. This year, they are on average about 10% higher than in 2020.

Leiseth of Hornbacher said that turkey supply is not a problem.

"Turkey supplies are good. We ordered the turkeys before they were raised. That part was easy. We got every turkey we ordered," Leiseth said. "We make decisions based on what people bought last year. We are in great shape."

He also regretted the rising cost of feed, fuel and transportation.

"Almost every stop on this turkey road adds costs," Leiseth said.

He said that figuring out the size of the turkey needed has been a headache. How big will the party be? Or will people turn to grilled meat or ham?

"Usually at normal times... If you want a big bird, you want to buy it as soon as possible. Last year, many smaller turkeys took the lead," Leiseth said.

He said, "I think it depends on where we are in dealing with the pandemic." "Based on the number of events open in North Dakota, I don't know if we are suitable for small gatherings."

He also believes that there is no problem in sourcing raw materials for traditional side dishes.

"Sweet potatoes, mashed potatoes, fillings. All of these are guaranteed. Staples are available," Leiseth said. "As long as the truck comes in, we are in great shape."